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IMF Forecast: Growing Dragon, Coughing Elephant


25 June 2020 03:53

The International Monetary Fund in its latest forecast report has highlighted that the coronavirus pandemic coupled with lockdown measures are likely to continue wrecking havoc to economies barring China.  Global GDP growth forecast for fiscal year 2020-21 is expected to be a negative 4.9 percent. In its previous estimate the agency estimated global GDP growth at minus 3 percent.  Overall, this would leave 2021 GDP some 6½ percentage points lower than in the pre-COVID-19 projections of January 2020, said an IMF June report.  China is the only economy expected to achieve growth. Chinas growth is forecast at 1 percent for 2020 and 8.2 percent for 2021 indicative of a full recovery.In Chinas case, the country where the initial cases were reported, Wuhan was completely locked even as the capital and key cities remained shut down for a few weeks. Most cities including Wuhan re-opened for business by April. Wuhas re-opening coincided with instances representative of a second wave. The total lock down in China lasted for three months. Chinas GDP growth for 2019 was estimated at 6.1 percent - highest in the world.  US at a negative growth of minus eight percent leads economies that are forecast to be worst affected. IMF predicts the following statistics for these countries:<b>•</b><b>Germany: </b>-7.8%<b>•</b><b>Mexico: </b>-10.5%  <b>•</b><b>Canada: </b>-8.4%<b>•</b><b>United Kingdom: </b>-10.2%<b>•</b><b>Italy: </b>-12.8%<b>•</b><b>Spain: </b>-12.8%India, where total cases are inching closer to the 500,000 mark and casualties nearing the 15,000 mark, GDP is expected to slip by 4.5%.  For latest stats, insights and news, click here. IMF forecasts that the pain in the economy could last for a few more months. In 2021, Indias economy is forecast to hit a GDP growth of 5-6 percent, higher than the 2019 GDP growth of 4.2 percent.IMFs recent revision for India pales in comparison with its own April assessment - a blip of a mere 1.9 percent with signs of early recovery.  The two important parameters for a negative assessment are swifter recovery and the probability of a second wave. A second wave is expected to hit India sometime in September end with reports estimating several thousands to be affect.
IMF Forecast: Growing Dragon, Coughing Elephant. This article is published at 25 June 2020 03:53 from Sify Indian Business and Finance News, click on the read full article link below to see further details.


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Tags : Forecast, Growing, Dragon, Coughing, Elephant





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